The summer holidays are just around the corner, and it is high time to decide, where you want to spend your holiday with family and friends.
Vattenfall’s meteorologist Peter Kerkmans normally prepares weather prognoses for the tradingdepartment in Hamburg and in this article, he shares what he sees in his weather maps and databases for the summer months. Looking so far into the future is, however, much more uncertain than the day-to-day forecasts published by the national meteorological institutes and weather services.
According to Kerkmans, this summer is not looking great for the Nordics.
“Low pressure areas are likely to dominate the weather conditions a large part of this summer. This means quite some rain or showers, mixed with low temperatures and rather windy conditions, especially over the Southern regions. The North will be drier but still on the cold side. Maybe August will become slightly friendlier with more drier periods and a bit elevated temperatures, mainly around what could be expected for the season. The current weather maps are not in favour of that though. So really warm and sunny days will be limited this summer”, Kerkmans explains.
Temperature deviations from the 30-year average
Kerkmans’ expectations for continental Europe are somewhat better:
“The Continent is likely to see a mainly warm, dry and sunny summer this year. So far it’s been extremely dry in major parts of the Continent, increasing the risk of forest fires, but also scarcity of drinking water. It will be mainly high pressure over France towards the Alps and central Europe that will deliver these warm figures with a risk of regional heat waves. Southern Europe will be warm as well, but the risk of thunder storms, especially in Italy and the Adriatic coast, is higher than usual. In Spain, the heat might be quite intense. Over there the water reservoirs are also very low and the risk of forest fires is extremely large for the entire Iberian peninsula. South-eastern Europe will be warm and dry as well.”
Monthly precipitation forecast
Also the UK will see a relatively warm, sunny and dry summer, especially in England and Wales. Scotland remains vulnerable to more winds, cooler temperatures and more precipitation.